Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
