A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
